Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum

The referendum that is scottish Bookies were predicting an 80 percent possibility of a ‘no’ vote, as the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.

Did bookies understand the results of the referendum that is scottish advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.

Scotland has voted in which to stay the UK, with 55.3 percent of voters deciding against dissolving the union that is 300-year of and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and votes that are losing as wide as 10 percent; lots of polls had predicted that the result was too close to call and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns had been split straight down the middle.

The simple truth is, polls were all over the accepted place: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote within the weeks leading up to your referendum. And they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory although they were correctly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day.

Margins of mistake

Maybe Not the bookies, though. They had it all figured away ages ago. While the pollsters’ predictions were see-sawing, online activities outfit that is betting had already determined to spend bettors who had their cash on a’no’ vote a few times before the referendum even occurred. And even though there is a whiff of a PR stunt about this announcement, it was made from a position of supreme confidence, because the markets that are betting rating the probability of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at the very least a week before the vote happened. It had been a forecast that, unlike compared to the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead as much as the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable when comparing to the wagering areas, and why is the media in such thrall to their wildly results that are unreliable? The polling organizations freely admit that their studies are inaccurate, frequently advising that we must allow for a margin of error, commonly around five percent. This means in a closely fought race, such as the Scottish referendum, their info is utterly useless. In a race where one party, in line with the polls, is leading by, say, 52 %, the presence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that survey useless.

The Wrong Questions

There are many factors that make polls unreliable, too many, in fact, to record here. Sometimes the test size of participants is simply too low, or it is unrepresentative of the people. Sometimes they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are sloppy or dishonest about recording information. But the ultimate, prevailing reason why polls fail is they usually ask the question that is wrong. Instead of asking people who they will vote for, they must certanly be asking the relevant question that the bookies constantly ask: ‘Who do you consider will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers shows that this concern yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also think on the opinions of these around them, and perhaps also because it may produce more truthful responses.’

Dishonest Responses

Those interviewed by pollsters are far more likely to express their support for change, while suppressing their concerns about the possible negative consequences in a case such as the Scottish referendum, where there is a large and popular movement for change. When asked about an issue on the location, it’s easier to express the perceived popular view. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might express the appealing idea of severing ties with a remote and unpopular federal government in Westminster, but in addition means uncertainty and feasible chaos that is economic.

As Wolfers says, ‘There is really a tendency that is historical polling to overstate the likelihood of success of referendums, possibly because we’re more willing to tell pollsters we will vote for change than to do so. Such biases are less likely to distort polls that ask those who they think will win. Indeed, in offering their expectations, some respondents may also mirror on whether or perhaps not they believe polling that is recent.

In a nutshell, when expected whether they’d vote for an independent Scotland, a significant quantity of Scots evidently lied. Gamblers, on the other hand, were brutally honest.

Suffolk Downs to Close Following Wynn Everett License Choose

Suffolk Downs in happier times: Horseracing attendance has fallen by 40 percent in recent years. Now the selection of Wynn Everett for the East Massachusetts casino permit has sealed the racetrack’s fate.(Image:

Suffolk Downs, the historic thoroughbred horseracing track in East Boston, is to close, officials have announced. Meanwhile, Wynn Resorts celebrates securing the single East Massachusetts casino permit for his or her Wynn Everett project, which will see the construction of a $1.2 billion casino resort in Everett, barring a casino that is unlikely vote in November.

Suffolk Downs is be the casualty that is first of week’s selection process. In favoring the Wynn bid over compared to the Mohegan Sun’s, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has hammered the nail that is final the coffin of thoroughbred horseracing in their state. Suffolk is one of just two horseracing tracks in Massachusetts, and the only one exclusively for thoroughbreds.

Mohegan Sun’s proposed resort would be to have been built on land owned by Suffolk Downs in Revere, and the racetrack had pledged to continue horseracing there for at the very least 15 years should Mohegan Sun win the bid. However, the Commission, which voted 3:1 against Mohegan Sun, decided that the Wynn proposal offered better potential to produce jobs and open up new avenues of revenue for their state. Suffolk Downs COO Chip Tuttle made the statement that the track wouldn’t normally be able to continue right after the Gaming Commission’s decision had been made public.

End for the Track

‘we have been extraordinarily disappointed as this course of action is likely to cost the Commonwealth thousands of jobs, small company and family farms,’ Tuttle said. ‘ We shall be meeting with employees and horsemen over the next several times to talk about how exactly we wind down racing operations, as being a 79-year legacy of Thoroughbred rushing in Massachusetts will be coming to an end, resulting in unemployment and uncertainty for many hardworking individuals.’

The industry has been hit by a 40 percent reduction in the past few years and Suffolk’s closure will probably affect hundreds of thoroughbred breeders, owners, farriers and others whom make their living in Massachusetts horseracing industry. The need to safeguard Suffolk Downs was one of many primary motivations for the 2011 Gambling Act, which expanded casino gaming in Massachusetts and created the Massachusetts that is east casino, and the decision to go with Wynn has angered many individuals.

‘Today’s decision to honor the license to Everett effectively put several hundred of my constituents out of work,’ stated Representative RoseLee Vincent, a Revere Democrat. ‘It is disturbing that the commission could reduce the jobs of 800 hardworking people.’

Rich History

Many industry workers feel betrayed by politicians and the Gaming Commission. ‘What’s depressing is we worked so difficult to obtain that gaming bill passed with all the indisputable fact that it would definitely conserve the farms and save racing in Massachusetts,’ said George F. Brown, the owner and supervisor of a breeding farm, who added that the ruling would ‘probably pretty much … placed most of the farms like mine out of company.’

Suffolk Downs opened in 1935, right after parimutuel betting had been legalized into the state. In 1937, Seabiscuit won the Massachusetts Handicap right here, breaking the background along the way. The race ended up being attended by 40,000 individuals. Through the years, the track has hosted events featuring legendary racehorses like Whirlaway, Funny Cide, and Cigar. In 1966, the Beatles played a concert here on the track’s infield in front side of 24,000 fans that are screaming.

Ultimately, though, a rich history wasn’t enough to save yourself Suffolk Downs, and, ironically and poignantly, the bill which was built to rescue this famous old racetrack seemingly have killed it.

Donald Trump Poised to Simply Take Back Trump Atlantic City Casinos

Is Donald Trump intent on saving Atlantic City or is he just interested in publicity? (Image: AP)

Can Donald Trump save Atlantic City? And can he?

The word from The Donald is which he can, and what’s more, he says he is precisely what AC has been missing every one of these years. This week and its non-Donald-related owner Trump Entertainment prepared to file for bankruptcy, the billionaire real estate mogul announced that he is ‘looking into’ mounting a rescue attempt as the Trump Plaza shuttered its doors.

Asked by the Press of Atlantic City whether he would help to save The Trump Plaza and its own at-risk sister home, the Trump Taj Mahal, the Donald said, ‘We’ll see what happens. If I can help the people of Atlantic City I’ll do it.’

Later, on Twitter, and clearly warming to their theme, Trump said: ‘I left Atlantic City years back, good timing. Now I might buy back, at reduced price, to save yourself Plaza & Taj. They were run poorly by funds!’

Trump has been hugely critical of his company that is former Trump in recent months, and has sought to distance himself from its stricken casino properties. In July, perhaps getting wind of impending bankruptcy, he launched appropriate procedures to have his name eliminated through the casinos so as to protect his brand, of which he is hugely protective.

Sentimental Side?

‘Since Mr. Trump left Atlantic City numerous years ago,’ states the lawsuit, ‘the license entities have allowed the casino properties to fall under a state that is utter of and have otherwise failed to use and manage the casino properties in respect with the high requirements of quality and luxury required under the permit contract.’

Trump left the nj casino industry in ’09, and Trump Entertainment was bought out by a small grouping of hedge fund managers and bondholders that are corporate have been permitted to retain the brand name in return for a 10 per cent ownership stake for Trump in the reorganized business. He has already established nothing regarding the gambling enterprises’ day-to-day operations subsequently.

‘Does anybody notice that Atlantic City lost its magic once I left years ago,’ Trump tweeted. ‘It is really so sad to see what has happened to Atlantic City. So numerous bad decisions by the pols through the years: airport, convention center, etc.’

Within the very early ’80s, Trump embarked on a project that is joint getaway Inn and Harrahs to build the Holiday Inn Casino resort. It had been completed in 1984, and he immediately bought out his business partners and renamed the property the Trump Plaza. It was the casino that is first ever owned, and this week it closed. Can it be that the notoriously cold-blooded property developer has a side that is sentimental? Or perhaps is it, just, as many folks think, that he can’t resist some publicity that is good?

Promotion Stunt a Possibility

Senator Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) thinks in the latter explanation.

‘Donald is just a guy who likes to see his name within the paper,’ he said. ‘He’s never ever been shy about searching for publicity or publicity that is obtaining. Issue is whether this is more publicity for Donald or whether he could be serious about coming back to Atlantic City in a way that is real. We’ll see down the road. Is Donald Trump looking to get some promotion, or is he serious? And if he’s serious, come on in and write some checks.’

‘I’m able to see Donald’s ego wanting him to come back as a savior,’ consented consultant that is gaming Norton. ‘ I don’t think Donald’s title would assist the casinos that much,’ he said. ‘Our issue is, other casinos have opened up and stop traffic from Philadelphia and New York.’

Intriguingly, and also as if to spite the naysayers, the Trump’s helicopter was seen arriving on top of this Taj on Tuesday. Could it be that Trump is really prepared to put his money where his mouth is?